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Nifty Close to Erasing 2024's Gains, JP Morgan Warn of Further Downside in Small-caps

INDIA

The Nifty and Sensex indices both closed over 1% lower and are now close to erasing the entirety of 2024’s gains. The Nifty has pierced below the 50-day EMA for the first time since November, extending the slip from last week’s highs to over 3%.

  • The capital market regulator last week highlighted growing exuberance in small- and mid-cap stocks and warned of “patterns of price manipulation” in some new listings, triggering a selloff in such stocks.
  • JP Morgan noted that India’s small and mid-cap stocks may remain volatile in the coming weeks, with margin funding and investor flows adding to risks. “Judging by previous corrections in the SMID space, there could be 5-10% further downside from here,” analysts wrote in a note according to Bloomberg.
  • Meanwhile, USDINR has recorded gains of 0.16%, with the rupee’s losses against the greenback broadly following that of most major Asian currencies ahead of the Fed on Wednesday. Today’s close at 83.0425 is the first above the 50-day EMA (82.9825) since Jan 05.
  • Data-wise, preliminary PMIs for February will cross Thursday morning, with no other releases scheduled for the rest of the week.
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