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No Change In Inflation Outlook Despite Modestly Hawkish Labour and CPI Language

CANADA
  • Stronger BoC language on the labour market (very tight vs tight, employment growth surprisingly strong and reference to declining productivity) and limited focus on recent moderation in core inflation (both core and short-term inflation expectations need to come down further).
  • Despite those hawkish but not hugely surprising points, the Bank still sees CPI inflation coming down to around 3% in the middle of this year (per the Jan MPR). It drops mention of seeing it get back to the 2% target in 2024 but it’s hard to take this as a hawkish signal outside of a MPR meeting.
  • The lack of change in the near-term inflation outlook is perhaps underpinning a push higher in USDCAD (touched 1.3794 high coming close to resistance at 1.3800) despite BBDXY stepping lower.
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