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No Confidence Vote Triggered

POLITICAL RISK
  • So the timeline for a no confidence vote in PM Johnson is accelerating quickly - weekend press had touted Wednesday as the most likely day for a vote, but that's been brought forward to today, with BBC reporting the vote will take place at 1800BST/1300ET.
  • Parliament returns today from the extended Bank Holiday weekend and a statement is expected from the 1922 committee head Graham Brady imminently, announcing that the 15% threshold of no confidence letters has been reached, triggering a vote.
  • Half +1 of sitting Conservative MPs need to vote against Boris Johnson to trigger a leadership election, making 180 MPs the threshold for today's vote.
  • If this figure is reaching, a multi-round leadership contest follows (which Johnson is not allowed to enter), which could include the party membership (around 200,000) depending on who enters the race. This process usually takes weeks/a month, during which Dominic Raab (deputy PM) would lead the government.
  • If the 180 threshold is not reached, Boris Johnson remains PM and leader of the Conservative Party. He is also immune from further no confidence votes for 12 months.
  • Is he likely to survive the vote? The BBC write "most seem to think there isn't a huge amount of coordination between those trying to oust Mr Johnson. this means "there isn't a plan, a strategy or a candidate". In other words, they agree on wanting Boris Johnson out, but they don't agree on much else."
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