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No Dominant Macro Drivers Last Week

NZD

NZD/USD firmed last week, up ~2% through the week dealing in a 2 cent range. The table below presents levels of correlations between NZD and key macro drivers (note the yield differential reflects swap rates).

  • There was no standout macro driver in a volatile week of trading as the fallout from the collapse of SVB and concerns over regional US and European banks escalated.
  • Widening rate differentials did help lift the NZD however the observed correlations were not strong. The kiwi looked through weakness in global equities and rising VIX.
  • Over the longer time frame 2 year rate differentials, agriculture and milk futures are showing the strongest correlation to the NZD, however there is no standout macro driver.

Fig 1: NZD/USD Correlation with Global Macro Drivers:

Source: MNI/Bloomberg

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