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No Lasting Impact From UK GDP, Just Over 45bp Of '24 BoE Cuts Priced

STIR

SONIA futures quickly reverse the initial move lower that was driven by the firmer-than-expected GDP data, last flat to -1.0.

  • BoE-dated OIS is little changed vs. yesterday’s closing levels, showing 50/50 odds of a cut at the August meeting and ~46bp of easing through year end.
  • While we don’t see today's GDP release as a meaningful market mover, we have noted that overall activity data is holding up much better than consensus and the BoE expected.
  • June’s CPI data provides the next meaningful domestic release of note, scheduled for Wednesday.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Aug-245.076-12.4
Sep-244.992-20.8
Nov-244.829-37.1
Dec-244.739-46.1
Feb-254.599-60.1
Mar-254.507-69.3
May-254.381-81.9
Jun-254.292-90.8

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg. 2025 meeting dates are estimated.

MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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