July 11, 2024 06:49 GMT
No Lasting Impact From UK GDP, Just Over 45bp Of '24 BoE Cuts Priced
STIR
SONIA futures quickly reverse the initial move lower that was driven by the firmer-than-expected GDP data, last flat to -1.0.
- BoE-dated OIS is little changed vs. yesterday’s closing levels, showing 50/50 odds of a cut at the August meeting and ~46bp of easing through year end.
- While we don’t see today's GDP release as a meaningful market mover, we have noted that overall activity data is holding up much better than consensus and the BoE expected.
- June’s CPI data provides the next meaningful domestic release of note, scheduled for Wednesday.
| BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| Aug-24 | 5.076 | -12.4 |
| Sep-24 | 4.992 | -20.8 |
| Nov-24 | 4.829 | -37.1 |
| Dec-24 | 4.739 | -46.1 |
| Feb-25 | 4.599 | -60.1 |
| Mar-25 | 4.507 | -69.3 |
| May-25 | 4.381 | -81.9 |
| Jun-25 | 4.292 | -90.8 |
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg. 2025 meeting dates are estimated.
135 words