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No Re-Pricing Of Fed Hikes On Bullard

STIR FUTURES
  • Bullard (non-voter) doesn't breathe life into into Fed hike expectations after they slipped on an inline CPI report.
  • 27.5bp for Feb 1 (-4bp on the day), cumulative 46.5bp for Mar (-4bp), 58bp to a terminal 4.91% Jun (-3bp) before cutting to 4.40% Dec (-5.5bp).
  • He saw the Dec CPI report as encouraging although there is too much optimism in markets that inflation will fall.
  • He favours getting to above 5% rates as soon as possible but it may not be critical how the Fed gets rates to destination. Will need to keep rates high enough to cool prices.
  • In other macro points, he sees household savings as another bullish factor entering 2023 along with a brightened global outlook.
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