No Real Conviction To Start The Week

An uptick in the USD alongside some weakness in e-minis sees EUR/USD lower into London, after bulls managed to take advantage of the broader USD weakness on Friday. Still, the range remains modest, with the cross last dealing 10 pips lower on the day around $1.1865.

• Early Asia hours saw a BBG interview with ECB President Lagarde flag tweaks to the Bank's forward guidance (in the wake of the tweak to its inflation target), while she highlighted potential for further tweaks to the Bank's broader policy settings in '22 (no real surprise there). Weekend ECB speak from Schnabel, Villeroy & Visco failed to move the needle.
• An address from ECB Vice President de Guindos headlines the broader Eurozone docket on Monday.
• Our technical analyst continues to flag a bearish outlook for the rate, despite the rally at the backend of last week. Initial resistance is seen at the July 6 high ($1.1895), while the June 25 high ($1.1975) presents key short-term resistance. Support is layered in from the July 7 low ($1.1782), with the April 5 low ($1.1738) in close proximity, protecting the March 31/key support ($1.1704).
• There is little of note in terms of option expiries at today's 10AM NY cut, although the following expiries may provide some interest tomorrow, price-level dependent: $1.1900-15 (EUR1.1bn)