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No Respite for RUB Assets as Sabre-Rattling Continues, US Destroyers Nearing the Black Sea

  • USD/RUB opens higher in line with a firmer USD and moderate risk-off across EM in early trading.
  • Ukraine tensions show no tangible signs of easing over the weekend and may escalate this week with US destroyers due to arrive in the Black Sea on 14/15 April.
  • Markets are also on alert for US sanction coming this week or next in response to the SolarWinds hack and alleged election meddling, keeping OFZ & RUB inflows on the backfoot pending a normalisation in geopolitical uncertainty.
  • More sabre-rattling is likely to keep USD/RUB in a sideways/higher range for now, until more tangible signs of de-escalation materialise.
  • Softer oil markets also providing little support to RUB, trading 0.4% in the red, despite upbeat demand-side expectations for the US as summer approaches and vaccinations rise.
  • PPI data (Fri 16) will be watched closely for signs of moderation in line with the expected cyclical peak in march, upside prints risk markets maintaining or escalating their already lofty hawkish predictions for the CBR this year, with ~115bp of hikes priced in over the next 3-6 months.
  • Intraday Sup1: 77.2794, Sup2: 76.8484, Res1: 78.0406, Res2: 74.4933
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |

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