Free Trial
JPY

Japanese CPI On Tap Ahead Of Super Thursday

JGB TECHS

(Z2) Support Remains Exposed

AUSSIE BONDS

Westpac Joins 50bp In Oct Club

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access

'No' To New Constitution Still Leads Polls, But Gap Narrowing

CHILE

Latest polling from Cadem shows respondents opposed to the new constitution, which is set to be voted on in a national plebiscite on 4 September. However, the gap between those opposed and those in favour of a new national legal document has narrowed notably since late-June, with support trending towards the 'approve' camp.

  • Cadem poll: "With all the information you have at this time, would you vote to Approve or Reject the proposed new Constitution?" Approve: 45.3% (+3.7), Reject: 54.7% (-3.7), (+/- vs. 13-15 Jul). Fieldwork: 20-22 July 2022. Sample size: 701
  • The steep rise in opposition to the new constitution came shortly after left-wing President Gabriel Boric came into office, with the fortunes of the Chilean leader and the new constitution seemingly intertwined. Rising inflationary pressures and slowing economic growth have seen protest movements spring up and Boric's approval ratings decline significantly, along with support for the new constitution that he and his gov't have advocated for.
  • Earlier this week, JP Morgan issued a note stating that, "In the medium term, uncertainty may linger even if rejection is favored in the polls...there seems to be a majority in favor of additional reforms...Last week, President Boric stated that if rejection wins, the Convention process is to start again...we may face a new process that could last for another 1.5 to 2 years, with adverse impact on investment, growth, and likely the fiscal accounts On the other side, if approval wins on Sep-4, steadfast legislation to clarify investors concerns on water rights, mining concessions, and expropriation terms seems paramount for uncertainty to abate."
Chart 1. Opinion Poll: Should Public Approve/Reject New Constitution? %

Source: CADEM, MNI. Sample sizes: 701-712

292 words

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to

MarketNews.com

MNI is the leading provider

of news and intelligence specifically for the Global Foreign Exchange and Fixed Income Markets, providing timely, relevant, and critical insight for market professionals and those who want to make informed investment decisions. We offer not simply news, but news analysis, linking breaking news to the effects on capital markets. Our exclusive information and intelligence moves markets.

Our credibility

for delivering mission-critical information has been built over three decades. The quality and experience of MNI's team of analysts and reporters across America, Asia and Europe truly sets us apart. Our Markets team includes former fixed-income specialists, currency traders, economists and strategists, who are able to combine expertise on macro economics, financial markets, and political risk to give a comprehensive and holistic insight on global markets.

Latest polling from Cadem shows respondents opposed to the new constitution, which is set to be voted on in a national plebiscite on 4 September. However, the gap between those opposed and those in favour of a new national legal document has narrowed notably since late-June, with support trending towards the 'approve' camp.

  • Cadem poll: "With all the information you have at this time, would you vote to Approve or Reject the proposed new Constitution?" Approve: 45.3% (+3.7), Reject: 54.7% (-3.7), (+/- vs. 13-15 Jul). Fieldwork: 20-22 July 2022. Sample size: 701
  • The steep rise in opposition to the new constitution came shortly after left-wing President Gabriel Boric came into office, with the fortunes of the Chilean leader and the new constitution seemingly intertwined. Rising inflationary pressures and slowing economic growth have seen protest movements spring up and Boric's approval ratings decline significantly, along with support for the new constitution that he and his gov't have advocated for.
  • Earlier this week, JP Morgan issued a note stating that, "In the medium term, uncertainty may linger even if rejection is favored in the polls...there seems to be a majority in favor of additional reforms...Last week, President Boric stated that if rejection wins, the Convention process is to start again...we may face a new process that could last for another 1.5 to 2 years, with adverse impact on investment, growth, and likely the fiscal accounts On the other side, if approval wins on Sep-4, steadfast legislation to clarify investors concerns on water rights, mining concessions, and expropriation terms seems paramount for uncertainty to abate."
Chart 1. Opinion Poll: Should Public Approve/Reject New Constitution? %

Source: CADEM, MNI. Sample sizes: 701-712