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'No' To New Constitution Still Leads Polls, But Gap Narrowing


Latest polling from Cadem shows respondents opposed to the new constitution, which is set to be voted on in a national plebiscite on 4 September. However, the gap between those opposed and those in favour of a new national legal document has narrowed notably since late-June, with support trending towards the 'approve' camp.

  • Cadem poll: "With all the information you have at this time, would you vote to Approve or Reject the proposed new Constitution?" Approve: 45.3% (+3.7), Reject: 54.7% (-3.7), (+/- vs. 13-15 Jul). Fieldwork: 20-22 July 2022. Sample size: 701
  • The steep rise in opposition to the new constitution came shortly after left-wing President Gabriel Boric came into office, with the fortunes of the Chilean leader and the new constitution seemingly intertwined. Rising inflationary pressures and slowing economic growth have seen protest movements spring up and Boric's approval ratings decline significantly, along with support for the new constitution that he and his gov't have advocated for.
  • Earlier this week, JP Morgan issued a note stating that, "In the medium term, uncertainty may linger even if rejection is favored in the polls...there seems to be a majority in favor of additional reforms...Last week, President Boric stated that if rejection wins, the Convention process is to start again...we may face a new process that could last for another 1.5 to 2 years, with adverse impact on investment, growth, and likely the fiscal accounts On the other side, if approval wins on Sep-4, steadfast legislation to clarify investors concerns on water rights, mining concessions, and expropriation terms seems paramount for uncertainty to abate."
Chart 1. Opinion Poll: Should Public Approve/Reject New Constitution? %

Source: CADEM, MNI. Sample sizes: 701-712

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