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NOK: Crude Pullback Reaffirms Bearish Conditions in NOKSEK

NOK
USGlobalCEEMEABulletNorwayMarketsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America

The ~4.2% fall in Brent crude futures over the past two days has weighed on the Norwegian krone, with NOKSEK now 1.5% off this week’s highs. The pullback reaffirms bearish conditions in the cross, after topside momentum faltered following Monday’s close above the key 50-day EMA.

  • Support in NOKSEK lies at 0.9536 (Sep 11 low), which shields key multi-year pivot support at 0.9500.
  • USDNOK and EURNOK have also rebounded 1.8% and 1.6% respectively since yesterday, despite piercing key support levels earlier this week.
  • A reminder that yesterday’s Riksbank decision was a little more dovish than expected, with the policy guidance opening the door to a 50bp cut in November or December.
  • However, this was not enough to drive a material reaction in SEK crosses, with markets having already come into the meeting pricing an aggressive rate cutting cycle.
  • See our earlier post for deeper colour on the drivers behind the crude pullback.
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The ~4.2% fall in Brent crude futures over the past two days has weighed on the Norwegian krone, with NOKSEK now 1.5% off this week’s highs. The pullback reaffirms bearish conditions in the cross, after topside momentum faltered following Monday’s close above the key 50-day EMA.

  • Support in NOKSEK lies at 0.9536 (Sep 11 low), which shields key multi-year pivot support at 0.9500.
  • USDNOK and EURNOK have also rebounded 1.8% and 1.6% respectively since yesterday, despite piercing key support levels earlier this week.
  • A reminder that yesterday’s Riksbank decision was a little more dovish than expected, with the policy guidance opening the door to a 50bp cut in November or December.
  • However, this was not enough to drive a material reaction in SEK crosses, with markets having already come into the meeting pricing an aggressive rate cutting cycle.
  • See our earlier post for deeper colour on the drivers behind the crude pullback.