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NOK: EURNOK At YTD Highs As Softer Oil Backdrop Weighs On Krone

NOK

NOK once again underperforms the G10 as Brent crude futures fall almost 1%. This allows EURNOK to reach fresh YTD highs, currently 0.7% higher today.

  • EURNOK breached May 1 high at 11.8733 into Friday’s close, and bullish momentum has continued.
  • This opens up 12.0062 (August 2023 high) and 12.1064 (May 2023 high) on the upside. 
  • The last week’s moves have pushed the EURNOK RSI further into overbought territory at 78.3 – the highest since March 2020.
  • The krone’s recent weakness (and volatility) may provide another reason for Norges Bank to maintain its hawkish tone at the August 15 meeting, even if inflation remains firmly below the June MPR forecast at that point.
  • This week’s domestic calendar includes labour force survey data, industrial confidence and retail sales.
  •  These are not traditionally big market movers, so NOK should remain most sensitive to broader moves in oil prices and global risk sentiment.
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