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NOK Flips to Top of G10 Pile

FOREX
  • The greenback is softer ahead of the Wednesday crossover, keeping the USD Index under pressure - albeit inside the now well-defined uptrend off the July low. Prices have stabilized above congestion support layered between the 100- and 50-dmas of 102.312 and 102.275.
  • NOK, yesterday's poorest performer, is now the strongest in G10, with EUR/NOK edging to new lows at typing. Moves coincide with an inching higher of the Brent crude price, which now sits just shy of the best levels of the week having erased the entirety of the early Tuesday decline. Support seen layered below the EUR/NOK price headed into tomorrow's CPI release, with downside levels at 11.1483-11.0965, capturing a key Fib retracement, the 200-dma as well as the Jul25 low.
  • Lastly, front-end implied vols are seeing some support ahead of the US inflation tomorrow, with overnight G10 FX vols bumped to new August highs in anticipation of a post-CPI market reaction. EUR/USD overnight vols have cleared 10 points - well ahead of the July running average.
  • The data calendar is light across G10, with Canadian building permits the sole release. The speaker schedule is similarly light, keeping focus on the US CPI release set for Thursday.
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