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Nomura: Keep terminal rate unchanged but expect four more 2022 hikes

BOE
  • “The Committee has asked Bank staff to “design a programme of corporate bond sales” which the Bank can then announce in three months’ time. If that is the lead-time for which a programme of active corporate bond sales requires to be designed, then if we are right and the Bank announces later this year it is starting active gilt sales from early 2023, then we should possibly expect it to pre-announce this a few months before to allow the staff time to prepare the outline of a potential programme of sales.”
  • “It seems likely… that the four members of the MPC voting for a 50bp hike this month will vote for another hike in March (whether the dissenters vote for 25bp or 50bp is questionable). It also seems unlikely that no other member will join them. After all, one of the arguments made by those voting for a 25bp hike today was the desire to move Bank Rate in “small increments””
  • “We have brought forward the timing of our view of the next 25bp hike to the March meeting (to 0.75%). We also continue to see hikes in May (to 1%) and August (1.25%), and another in November (1.50%). We stick with our view of a terminal rate of 1.75% and thus only see one hike now in 2023 (February) – thus our terminal rate is now reached a quarter earlier than previously expected.”
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