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Nomura React to Jobs Upside Surprise


Nomura economists opinion on today's unexpectedly strong July jobs report (+528k vs. +250k est) will keep the "Fed hawkish.

  • "Today’s employment report underscores ongoing labor market imbalances in supply and demand. Strong wage growth in particular reinforces the risk of an ongoing wage-price spiral.
  • As a result, we believe the report is consistent with ongoing rate increases from the Fed. On the margin, today’s strong numbers increase the risk the Fed will raise rates again by 75bp in September, above our current expectation of 50bp, although that action will likely depend on the July and August CPI reports."
  • Nomura estimates core CPI inflation to moderate to 0.5% MoM in July from 0.7% in June.

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