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Nomura view ahead of this week's MPC meeting

BOE
  • Nomura expects a unanimous vote for unchanged policy.
  • "Words, rather than actions, are therefore likely to be the main focus of this meeting. In particular, look out for any thoughts on negative interest rates (we don't think the MPC will go there, but do expect at some point a brief pros/cons-style analysis by Bank staff) and on the Governor's thoughts (if prompted by a question at the press conference) on the debate about whether QE will be eventually scaled back before interest rates are raised."
  • On ELB: Nomura notes there are a number of ways the BOE could present views "from a simple and short MPC discussion in the minutes (based on longer unpublished analysis by Bank staff), an "In Focus" topic in the Monetary Policy Report (MPR), or the publication of a more in-depth Bank staff paper. We suspect the MPR route may be the most palatable, and because it would be written by Bank staff we doubt it will contain any hard conclusions, but rather be a "pros/cons" style of discussion – leaving it, rightly, to the MPC to decide. If that's the Bank's plan, then whether it appears in the August or November MPR is debatable." Nomura do not expect the Bank to cut interest rates through its forecast horizon.
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