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Nomura View Following the BOE MPR

BOE
  • Nomura notes the BOE looks for inflation "to have risen back to around its 2% target rate in two years' time and to be generally on an upward trajectory from the start of next year. While that seems to fit the "achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably" part of the Bank's new guidance today, it does not automatically imply policy loosening will reversed when inflation rises. After all, the Committee has only said it will not tighten policy unless , not when , inflation moves sustainably higher."
  • Nomura thinks "the marginal tools for dealing with further economic weakness and downside inflation misses remain asset purchases and – as we've seen today – guidance."
  • Regarding negative rates, Nomura note "the overwhelming focus in the Bank's analysis seemed to be on the drawbacks…The MPC believes this to be especially true in the current conditions"
  • Nomura continue to expect no changes to policy although "the risks seem to be skewed" to further loosening.
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