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Nordea: Fed To Deliver $30B Taper; Powell Will Have To "Walk On Eggshells"

FED

Nordea's Fed preview was published Tuesday morning, too late to make it into MNI's FOMC preview - but they are the only ones on the sell-side (of 30) that are NOT looking for a $15B/month taper - they instead are looking for a $30B/meeting process, implying a conclusion in early 2022 (April).

  • If the Fed delivers that surprise Wednesday, Powell will "have to be VERY concrete rhetorically to avoid a copy/paste of what RBA, BoC and BoE have triggered in the very front-end of the respective yield curves. Unless Powell and the FOMC explicitly state that nothing can happen on the policy rate until a certain date, we expect markets to chase rate hikes even further after the policy decision to start tapering."
  • Nordea's base case is for hikes in June, September and December, though they see May as a "live" meeting as well. This outlook makes them the most hawkish sell-side Fed analysts.
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