December 27, 2024 09:02 GMT
POWER: Nordic 1Q25 Trades Slightly Higher but Wetter Outlook Caps Gains
POWER
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The Nordic front quarter is trading slightly higher from the previous session amid gains in TTF and German power. However, an upward revision of Sweden’s and Norway’s hydro balances and temperatures in the Nordic region mostly revised up over 28 December – 1 January is limiting the extent of the gains.
- Nordic Base Power 1Q25 up 0.5% at 47.5 EUR/MWh
- France Base Power JAN 25 up 2.6% at 102.5 EUR/MWh
- Germany Base Power JAN 25 up 3.2% at 118.5 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 up 1.1% at 70.2 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas JAN 25 up 2.8% at 47.01 EUR/MWh
- Norway’s hydrological balance was revised up over 2-10 January by around 60-500 GWh/d, with the balance ending at +11.39TWh on 10 January compared to +10.87TWh in the previous estimate for the same day.
- Sweden's balance is expected to be at +5.06TWh on 10 Jan compared to +4.71TWh in previous estimates.
- Precipitation in the Nordic region has also been mostly revised higher over 28-31 Dec by up to 0.7mm, with the rainfall expected to be flip above the norm over on 30 December and reach as high as 6.7mm on 3 January compared to the seasonal average of 2.81mm.
- Snowfall in the region is also expected to pick up from 27 December at 0.2cm to reach as high as 3.7cm on 3 January.
- And average temperatures in the Nordics are anticipated to remain above the seasonal average until 4 January, with temps at between minus 0.7C and 4.2C over 28 December- 3 January.
- Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at around 2.19GW, or a 42% load factor, on 28 Dec – relatively stable from forecasts today, which may weigh on power prices coupled with typically lower weekend demand.
- Nordic nuclear availability was at 86% capacity on Friday morning, stable on the day, according to Bloomberg. 10 of 11 units are still online.
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