Nordic August to Possibly Give Back Gains

The Nordic August baseload power contract moved up sharply yesterday – supported by gains made in the previous session – as TTF prices raised neighbouring EU markets. But the contract could move down today – once it becomes liquid – as losses in the European gas and emissions are weighing on German power, with Norway's hydro balance forecast to turn positive at the end of July.

• Nordic Base Power AUG 24 closed up 8.4% at 26.35 EUR/MWh on 16 July
• France Base Power AUG 24 down 1.1% at 45.19 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power AUG 24 down 0.7% at 71.1 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 down 0.4% at 67.73 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas AUG 24 up 0.2% at 32.85 EUR/MWh
• Average temperatures in the Nordics are forecast at around 15.7C across August down slightly from 16.94C anticipated over July, seasonal ECMWF forecasts show.
• And precipitation across the Nordics is expected to be firm in August from July at around 85.6mm compared to 85mm forecasted in July.
• Closer in, Norwegian wind is anticipated at a 19% load factor, or 1GW on 18 July - which could weigh down power costs. Wind is expected to drop to just a 4% load factor the next day - which could add some support to prices – before increasing over the weekend.
• Nordic nuclear capacity was unchanged on the day at around 79% of capacity, with the 1.08GW Ringhals 3 and 990MW Forsmark 1 units still expected to return on 20 and 27 July, respectively.
• Norway’s hydrological balance has been revised up on the day for all days over 17- 31 July, with the balance moved up as much as 850GWh over 17-19 July. The balance is expected to turn slightly positive towards the end of this month.