POWER: Nordic Curve Falls on Temps, TTF but Drier Outlook Could Limit losses

The Nordic forward curve is descending, weighed down by European gas and emissions costs—dropping prices in neighbouring EU markets, with an upward revision of average temperatures over 19-23 February in the region also adding weight. However, a weakened hydro balance in Norway and Sweden could limit losses.

• Nordic Base Power Front-Quarter down 5.2% at 21 EUR/MWh
• France Base Power MAR 25 down 2.5% at 72.79 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power MAR 25 down 2.8% at 90 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 25 down 0.2% at 77.03 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas MAR 25 down 0.9% at 47.7 EUR/MWh
• Norway’s hydrological balance was revised down over 22 February-4 March by around 80-600GWh and is expected to end at +7.37TWh on 4 March, down from +7.84TWh in the previous forecast for the same day.
• Sweden’s balance is also expected to be lower on the day and is now anticipated at +4.23TWh on 4 March from +4.35TWh previously estimated for the same day.
• Rainfall in the region is expected to be higher on the week over this week, with precipitation briefly climbing above the 30-year norm on 21 February and 24 February. Rainfall will also be on a general upward trend heading into next week.
• And average temperatures in the Nordics have been revised up by as much as 0.7C over 19-23 February and will flip above the seasonal average on 21 February – remaining above until at least 5 March.
• Closer in, Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 99% capacity on Tuesday morning, down from 100% on Monday. However, 11 of 11 units are still online, according to Bloomberg.
• Norwegian wind is anticipated at around 1.01GW on 19 February, or a 19% load factor, up from 0.703GW anticipated today – which could weigh on power prices from the previous session