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POWER: Nordic Feb Resists Gains in TTF, German Power Amid Wetter Outlook

POWER
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The Nordic February is trading in red to resist increases in German power and TTF as a wetter outlook in the region is weighing on the curve. However, temperatures in the Nordics are anticipated to remain below the norm until 6 January, with temps seen as low as -5.1C over 2-6 January– likely supporting heating demand.

  • Nordic Base Power FEB 25 down 3.6% at 45.75 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power FEB 25 up 2% at 102.9 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power FEB 25 up 1.8% at 113 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 up 0.5% at 73.4 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas FEB 25 up 0.7% at 49.25 EUR/MWh
  • The 1.6GW OL3 capacity limitation has been lifted, which will allow the unit to produce power above 1.3GW, TSO Fingrid said on 31 December 2024.
  • The Norwegian hydro balance is expected higher over 6-16 Jan, with the balance revised up by as much as 790GWh for some days. The balance anticipated at +9.94TWh on 16 Jan compared to +9.15TWh previously estimated.
  • Sweden’s hydro balance is expected at +5.48TWh on 16 Jan compared to +5.15TWh in the previous estimate.
  • Rainfall in the Nordics over 2-5 Jan will see slightly below-normal precipitation. However, rainfall is expected as high as 11.06mm on 6 January compared to the seasonal average of 2.91mm.
  • And average temperatures in the region will be between -5.11C and 0.6C over 2-16 January compared to the norm of minus 1.9 and minus 1.8C over the same period. The coolest days are seen over 4-5 January.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at just 1.45GW on 3 January – down from the 1.79GW forecast for today – which could support delivery.
  • Nordic nuclear availability was at 88% capacity on Thursday morning, up from 84% on Tuesday, according to Bloomberg. 10 of 11 units are still online.
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The Nordic February is trading in red to resist increases in German power and TTF as a wetter outlook in the region is weighing on the curve. However, temperatures in the Nordics are anticipated to remain below the norm until 6 January, with temps seen as low as -5.1C over 2-6 January– likely supporting heating demand.

  • Nordic Base Power FEB 25 down 3.6% at 45.75 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power FEB 25 up 2% at 102.9 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power FEB 25 up 1.8% at 113 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 up 0.5% at 73.4 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas FEB 25 up 0.7% at 49.25 EUR/MWh
  • The 1.6GW OL3 capacity limitation has been lifted, which will allow the unit to produce power above 1.3GW, TSO Fingrid said on 31 December 2024.
  • The Norwegian hydro balance is expected higher over 6-16 Jan, with the balance revised up by as much as 790GWh for some days. The balance anticipated at +9.94TWh on 16 Jan compared to +9.15TWh previously estimated.
  • Sweden’s hydro balance is expected at +5.48TWh on 16 Jan compared to +5.15TWh in the previous estimate.
  • Rainfall in the Nordics over 2-5 Jan will see slightly below-normal precipitation. However, rainfall is expected as high as 11.06mm on 6 January compared to the seasonal average of 2.91mm.
  • And average temperatures in the region will be between -5.11C and 0.6C over 2-16 January compared to the norm of minus 1.9 and minus 1.8C over the same period. The coolest days are seen over 4-5 January.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at just 1.45GW on 3 January – down from the 1.79GW forecast for today – which could support delivery.
  • Nordic nuclear availability was at 88% capacity on Thursday morning, up from 84% on Tuesday, according to Bloomberg. 10 of 11 units are still online.