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POWER: Nordic Forward Curve Could Trade in Red on Temps, Stronger Hydro Balance

POWER
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The Nordic forward curve may face downward pressure -once it becomes liquid – amid losses in TTF and as above seasonal temperature forecasts until 11 March. Stronger hydro balances in Norway and Sweden may also add weight, however, works at the 1.6GW OL3 nuke are still slated to begin on 1 March.

  • Nordic Base Power MAR 25 closed down 4.5% at 34.85 EUR/MWh on 21 Feb
  • France Base Power MAR 25 up 6.6% at 75.3 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power MAR 25 up 5.6% at 92.48 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 0.5% at 73.53 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas MAR 25 down 1.6% at 46.44 EUR/MWh
  • The 1.6GW OL3 nuclear power plant in Finland will be fully offline over 1 March-25 April. Additionally, the 890MW OL2 will be curtailed by 155MW until 25 May.
  • The Norwegian hydro balance is expected to be higher over 24 Feb-10 March, with upward revisions seen as around 540GWh from previous forecasts. The balance is anticipated at +8.93TWh on 10 March compared to +8.40TWh previously estimated.
  • Sweden’s hydro balance is expected at +4.94TWh on 10 March compared to +4.89TWh in the previous estimate.
  • Average temperatures in the region have been mostly revised up over 24 February-1 March and will be well above the seasonal average until 10 March – reaching as high 3.9C on that day.
  • However, rainfall in the Nordics will be below the seasonal average throughout the 6-10 day ECMWF forecasts – which could weigh on hydro stocks.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at 1.43GW on 25 February, or a 27% load factor, down from today's 2.78GW forecast, which could place upward pressure on delivery.
  • Nordic nuclear capacity was at 94% capacity on Monday morning, down from 98% on Friday, according to Bloomberg. 11 of the 11 units are still online.
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The Nordic forward curve may face downward pressure -once it becomes liquid – amid losses in TTF and as above seasonal temperature forecasts until 11 March. Stronger hydro balances in Norway and Sweden may also add weight, however, works at the 1.6GW OL3 nuke are still slated to begin on 1 March.

  • Nordic Base Power MAR 25 closed down 4.5% at 34.85 EUR/MWh on 21 Feb
  • France Base Power MAR 25 up 6.6% at 75.3 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power MAR 25 up 5.6% at 92.48 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 0.5% at 73.53 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas MAR 25 down 1.6% at 46.44 EUR/MWh
  • The 1.6GW OL3 nuclear power plant in Finland will be fully offline over 1 March-25 April. Additionally, the 890MW OL2 will be curtailed by 155MW until 25 May.
  • The Norwegian hydro balance is expected to be higher over 24 Feb-10 March, with upward revisions seen as around 540GWh from previous forecasts. The balance is anticipated at +8.93TWh on 10 March compared to +8.40TWh previously estimated.
  • Sweden’s hydro balance is expected at +4.94TWh on 10 March compared to +4.89TWh in the previous estimate.
  • Average temperatures in the region have been mostly revised up over 24 February-1 March and will be well above the seasonal average until 10 March – reaching as high 3.9C on that day.
  • However, rainfall in the Nordics will be below the seasonal average throughout the 6-10 day ECMWF forecasts – which could weigh on hydro stocks.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at 1.43GW on 25 February, or a 27% load factor, down from today's 2.78GW forecast, which could place upward pressure on delivery.
  • Nordic nuclear capacity was at 94% capacity on Monday morning, down from 98% on Friday, according to Bloomberg. 11 of the 11 units are still online.