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POWER: Nordic Forward Curve May Face Downward Pressure on Wetter Outlook, Temps

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The Nordic forward curve may face downward pressure – despite April already trading in green – amid an upward revision of Norway’s hydro balance compared to previous forecasts – lowering supply risks. Temperatures in the Nordics are also expected to remain above the 30-year norm and losses in German power and TTF could add further downward pressure.

  • Nordic Base Power FEB 25 closed up 0.7% at 33.75 EUR/MWh on 24 January
  • Germany Base Power FEB 25 down 1.7% at 112.83 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 1% at 80.86 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas FEB 25 down 1.5% at 48.95 EUR/MWh
  • However, the planned outage at the 1.17GW Forsmark 3 has been extended to 31 January from 27 January owing to a problem with the turbine valve, latest Remit data show
  • The unit will reach full power on the evening of 3 February, according to Remit remarks.
  • The Norwegian hydro balance is expected higher over 6-10 February from previous forecasts, with the balance anticipated at +10.68TWh on 10 February compared to +10.04TWh previously estimated.
  • Sweden’s hydro balance is also higher on the day and is expected at +6.70TWh on 10 February compared to +6.42TWh in the previous estimate.
  • Rainfall in the Nordics over 28 January-10 February will see below-normal precipitation over the majority of the period. However, on 29 January and 4 February rainfall is expected to flip above the seasonal average of around 2.8mm.
  • And average temperatures in the region will be above the 30-year norm of around -2C over the entire 6-10 days ECMEF forecasts – which could weigh on power demand.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at 1.07GW on 28 January, or a 20% load factor down from today's 1.91GW forecast, which could support delivery.
  • Nordic nuclear output is at 89% of capacity on Monday, unchanged from Friday. 10 of the 11 units are still online, according to Bloomberg
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The Nordic forward curve may face downward pressure – despite April already trading in green – amid an upward revision of Norway’s hydro balance compared to previous forecasts – lowering supply risks. Temperatures in the Nordics are also expected to remain above the 30-year norm and losses in German power and TTF could add further downward pressure.

  • Nordic Base Power FEB 25 closed up 0.7% at 33.75 EUR/MWh on 24 January
  • Germany Base Power FEB 25 down 1.7% at 112.83 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 1% at 80.86 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas FEB 25 down 1.5% at 48.95 EUR/MWh
  • However, the planned outage at the 1.17GW Forsmark 3 has been extended to 31 January from 27 January owing to a problem with the turbine valve, latest Remit data show
  • The unit will reach full power on the evening of 3 February, according to Remit remarks.
  • The Norwegian hydro balance is expected higher over 6-10 February from previous forecasts, with the balance anticipated at +10.68TWh on 10 February compared to +10.04TWh previously estimated.
  • Sweden’s hydro balance is also higher on the day and is expected at +6.70TWh on 10 February compared to +6.42TWh in the previous estimate.
  • Rainfall in the Nordics over 28 January-10 February will see below-normal precipitation over the majority of the period. However, on 29 January and 4 February rainfall is expected to flip above the seasonal average of around 2.8mm.
  • And average temperatures in the region will be above the 30-year norm of around -2C over the entire 6-10 days ECMEF forecasts – which could weigh on power demand.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at 1.07GW on 28 January, or a 20% load factor down from today's 1.91GW forecast, which could support delivery.
  • Nordic nuclear output is at 89% of capacity on Monday, unchanged from Friday. 10 of the 11 units are still online, according to Bloomberg