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POWER: Nordic March Down 7.5% On Week

POWER
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The Nordic forward curve is in the red amid the continued decline of TTF, placing downward pressure on neighbouring Germany. A wetter outlook in Norway is also weighing down the curve.  While temperatures have been revised down over 14-19 February, they are still expected to flip above the norm on 21 February. March is tracking a weekly decline of 7.5%.

  • Nordic Base Power MAR 25 down 3% at 40 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power MAR 25 down 3.6% at 78.9 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power MAR 25 down 2.9% at 96.27 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 0.6% at 77.62 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas MAR 25 down 3.7% at 49.5 EUR/MWh
  • The Norwegian hydro balance is expected higher over 20-28 February, with upward revisions between 100-450GWh. The balance is anticipated at +4.56TWh on 28 February compared to +4.07TWh previously estimated.
  • However, Sweden’s hydro balance is expected unchanged on the day, with the balance ending at +3.96TWh on 28 February the same as the previous estimate.
  • Average temperatures in the region have been revised down over 14-19 February by as much as 0.6C but are still expected to flip above the seasonal average on 21 February and climb as high as 4.7C on 25 February – towards the higher end of the ECMWF forecasts.
  • And precipitation in the region has been revised up over 14-18 February, albeit rainfall will still be below the 30-year norm until the end of February.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at 1.07GW, or a 20% load factor on 15 February – up from the 0.743GW forecast for today – which could weigh on delivery coupled with a drop in demand.
  • Nordic nuclear availability was at 100% capacity on Friday morning, unchanged on the day, according to Bloomberg. 11 of 11 units are still online.
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The Nordic forward curve is in the red amid the continued decline of TTF, placing downward pressure on neighbouring Germany. A wetter outlook in Norway is also weighing down the curve.  While temperatures have been revised down over 14-19 February, they are still expected to flip above the norm on 21 February. March is tracking a weekly decline of 7.5%.

  • Nordic Base Power MAR 25 down 3% at 40 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power MAR 25 down 3.6% at 78.9 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power MAR 25 down 2.9% at 96.27 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 0.6% at 77.62 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas MAR 25 down 3.7% at 49.5 EUR/MWh
  • The Norwegian hydro balance is expected higher over 20-28 February, with upward revisions between 100-450GWh. The balance is anticipated at +4.56TWh on 28 February compared to +4.07TWh previously estimated.
  • However, Sweden’s hydro balance is expected unchanged on the day, with the balance ending at +3.96TWh on 28 February the same as the previous estimate.
  • Average temperatures in the region have been revised down over 14-19 February by as much as 0.6C but are still expected to flip above the seasonal average on 21 February and climb as high as 4.7C on 25 February – towards the higher end of the ECMWF forecasts.
  • And precipitation in the region has been revised up over 14-18 February, albeit rainfall will still be below the 30-year norm until the end of February.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at 1.07GW, or a 20% load factor on 15 February – up from the 0.743GW forecast for today – which could weigh on delivery coupled with a drop in demand.
  • Nordic nuclear availability was at 100% capacity on Friday morning, unchanged on the day, according to Bloomberg. 11 of 11 units are still online.