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POWER: Nordic March Falls to Fresh Feb Low

POWER
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The Nordic March has hit a fresh February low on the back of sharp upward revisions of the hydro balances in Norway and Sweden. Losses in TTF and German power are adding weight, with temperatures in the Nordics also forecasts to remain above the 30-year norm until the beginning of March.

  • Nordic Base Power MAR 25 down 4% at 39.5 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power MAR 25 down 4.9% at 76.91 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power MAR 25 down 3.4% at 96.25 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 1% at 78.96 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas MAR 25 down 0.8% at 50.275 EUR/MWh
  • The Norwegian hydro balance is expected to be higher throughout the 14-day forecasts, with the balance anticipated at +8.31TWh on 3 March compared to +6.42TWh previously estimated. This is also up from the balance anticipated on 17 February at +4.96TWh.
  • Sweden’s hydro balance is expected at +4.11TWh on 3 March compared to +3.70TWh in the previous estimate. However, this is down from the balance on 17 February at +5.05TWh.
  • Average temperatures in the region have been revised up over 21-22 February by as much as 0.2C and are still expected to flip above the seasonal average of around -2C on 21 February and remain above until at least 3 March. Temps are seen as high as 4C over the period.
  • And precipitation in the region is expected to begin to pick up from 17 February flipping above the norm for a brief period on 24 February – when around 7.7mm of rain is anticipated.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at just 0.549GW, or a 10% load factor on 18 February – down from the 0.809GW forecast for today – which could support delivery.
  • Nordic nuclear availability was at 100% capacity on Monday morning, unchanged on the day, according to Bloomberg. 11 of 11 units are still online.
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The Nordic March has hit a fresh February low on the back of sharp upward revisions of the hydro balances in Norway and Sweden. Losses in TTF and German power are adding weight, with temperatures in the Nordics also forecasts to remain above the 30-year norm until the beginning of March.

  • Nordic Base Power MAR 25 down 4% at 39.5 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power MAR 25 down 4.9% at 76.91 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power MAR 25 down 3.4% at 96.25 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 1% at 78.96 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas MAR 25 down 0.8% at 50.275 EUR/MWh
  • The Norwegian hydro balance is expected to be higher throughout the 14-day forecasts, with the balance anticipated at +8.31TWh on 3 March compared to +6.42TWh previously estimated. This is also up from the balance anticipated on 17 February at +4.96TWh.
  • Sweden’s hydro balance is expected at +4.11TWh on 3 March compared to +3.70TWh in the previous estimate. However, this is down from the balance on 17 February at +5.05TWh.
  • Average temperatures in the region have been revised up over 21-22 February by as much as 0.2C and are still expected to flip above the seasonal average of around -2C on 21 February and remain above until at least 3 March. Temps are seen as high as 4C over the period.
  • And precipitation in the region is expected to begin to pick up from 17 February flipping above the norm for a brief period on 24 February – when around 7.7mm of rain is anticipated.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at just 0.549GW, or a 10% load factor on 18 February – down from the 0.809GW forecast for today – which could support delivery.
  • Nordic nuclear availability was at 100% capacity on Monday morning, unchanged on the day, according to Bloomberg. 11 of 11 units are still online.