MNI: UK FINAL JAN MANUF PMI 48.3 (FLASH: 48.2); DEC 47.0

MNI: EUROZONE FINAL JAN MANUF PMI 46.6 (FLASH: 46.1); DEC 45.1

MNI: GERMANY FINAL JAN MANUF PMI 45.0 (FLASH: 44.1); DEC 42.5

MNI BRIEF: Fed's Goolsbee Supports Slowing Rate Cuts

MNI BRIEF: US Dec Core PCE Inflation In Line With Expectations

MNI BRIEF: Fed's Bowman Wants Inflation Progress Before Cuts

MNI: ITALY JAN FLASH HICP -0.7% M/M, +1.7% Y/Y

MNI: EUROZONE JAN FLASH HICP +2.5% Y/Y

MNI: FRANCE FINAL JAN MANUF PMI 45.0 (FLASH: 45.3); DEC 41.9

GERMANY: Economy Ministry Lowers 2025 Growth Forecast As Expected

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

POWER: Nordic March Leads Gains on Curve Amid Drier Outlook

POWER
BulletPower BulletsEnergy BulletsCommodities

The Nordic March is trading higher on the day as a diminishing outlook in Norway’s and Sweden’s hydro balance is lifting the product – suggesting amplified supply risks. But the 1.17GW Forsmark 3 has powered up to around 980MW this morning, with full capacity reached by 4 Feb and average temperatures in the region have also been revised up on the day – which could cap gains.

  • Nordic Base Power MAR 25 up 7.9% at 46 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power MAR 25 up 1.7% at 90.06 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power MAR 25 down 0.4% at 105.81 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 1.5% at 82.7 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas MAR 25 up 0.2% at 53.35 EUR/MWh
  • The Norwegian hydro balance is expected to be sharply lower on the day, with some revisions down by around 200GWh. The balance is anticipated at +4.45TWh on 17 February compared to +4.61TWh previously estimated. It is important to note that the balance is forecast at around +8.4TWh on 4 Feb.
  • Sweden’s hydro balance has also been revised lower at +5.44TWh on 17 February compared to +5.45TWh in the previous estimate. This is also down from +7.27TWh estimated for 4 Feb.
  • But average temperatures in the region have been revised up over 3-8 February by up to around 0.4C – with temps anticipated to remain slightly above the 30-year norm throughout the 6-10 ECMWF forecasts.
  • However, rainfall in the Nordics will remain below the seasonal average from until 17 February – likely limiting flows into reservoirs.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecast at 1.74GW, or a 33% load factor on 4 February – down from today's 1.89GW forecast, which could lift delivery costs.
  • Nordic nuclear availability was at 98% capacity on Monday morning, up from 89% on Friday, according to Bloomberg. 11 of 11 units are now online.
290 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

The Nordic March is trading higher on the day as a diminishing outlook in Norway’s and Sweden’s hydro balance is lifting the product – suggesting amplified supply risks. But the 1.17GW Forsmark 3 has powered up to around 980MW this morning, with full capacity reached by 4 Feb and average temperatures in the region have also been revised up on the day – which could cap gains.

  • Nordic Base Power MAR 25 up 7.9% at 46 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power MAR 25 up 1.7% at 90.06 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power MAR 25 down 0.4% at 105.81 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 1.5% at 82.7 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas MAR 25 up 0.2% at 53.35 EUR/MWh
  • The Norwegian hydro balance is expected to be sharply lower on the day, with some revisions down by around 200GWh. The balance is anticipated at +4.45TWh on 17 February compared to +4.61TWh previously estimated. It is important to note that the balance is forecast at around +8.4TWh on 4 Feb.
  • Sweden’s hydro balance has also been revised lower at +5.44TWh on 17 February compared to +5.45TWh in the previous estimate. This is also down from +7.27TWh estimated for 4 Feb.
  • But average temperatures in the region have been revised up over 3-8 February by up to around 0.4C – with temps anticipated to remain slightly above the 30-year norm throughout the 6-10 ECMWF forecasts.
  • However, rainfall in the Nordics will remain below the seasonal average from until 17 February – likely limiting flows into reservoirs.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecast at 1.74GW, or a 33% load factor on 4 February – down from today's 1.89GW forecast, which could lift delivery costs.
  • Nordic nuclear availability was at 98% capacity on Monday morning, up from 89% on Friday, according to Bloomberg. 11 of 11 units are now online.