Nordic Sept To Possibly Fall For Second-Session

The Nordic September could continue downward from yesterday amid a strong revision of Norway's hydrological balance owing to above-average rainfall in the region – which has led to a firm positive balance towards the beginning of the month. However, neighbouring EU power markets are trending up owing to an uptick in TTF – which could lend support to the Nordic equivalent.

• Nordic Base Power SEP 24 settled down 5% at 27.3 EUR/MWh on 16 August
• France Base Power SEP 24 up 1.6% at 69.9 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power SEP 24 up 0% at 92.3 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 up 0.3% at 72.33 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas SEP 24 up 0% at 39.615 EUR/MWh
• Norway’s hydrological balance is still expected to turn positive as early as the 20 August at +398GWh and is expected to climb to as high as +2,717GWh on 26 August before dropping slightly to end the month at around +2,390GWh.
• Precipitation in Norway is expected to starting rising from 17 August to reach 10.62mm on 21 August and between 6.2-13.1mm over 22- 25 August – compared to the 30-year norm of around 4.3mm.
• And Nordic power demand could drop on the month as temperatures begin to taper off in September, with average temperatures between 10.5-15.6C over 1-29 September compared to 15.3-18.9C over the remainder of August, ECMWF shows.
• But the balance could be dented, with nuclear maintenance in the region still scheduled at the 1.13GW Ringhals unit 4 over 15 August-13 September and the 1.17GW Forsmark unit 3 over 1 September-18 October, the latest remit data show.
• Works at the 500MW Loviisa unit 1 is also still anticipated from 31 August to 30 September.
• Closer in, Norwegian wind is anticipated at a 35-39% load factors, or 1.81-2.03GW on 19-20 August – which could weigh down power prices on delivery, however, with higher demand from 18 August (Sunday) prices could still be supported.
• Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 80% of capacity on Friday, down from 83% on the previous day, with 9 of 11 units online, according to Bloomberg.