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Nordstream Gas Flows Expected to Remain Limited

RUSSIA
  • Following reduced gas flows into Europe via the NordStream pipeline yesterday, limited flow is expected to persist through the Thursday session, with 65 mcm/d expected – below the 100 mcm/d flow seen earlier in the week. Gazprom had notified its European partners of the reduced flow on technical issues, although yesterday Germany’s Habeck stated Russia was intending to disrupt European energy markets and prop up prices.
  • After yesterday’s read-outs of the Xi-Putin call (intended to celebrate Xi’s birthday), Bloomberg point out the differing interpretations of the call from both sides. While Putin’s read-out pointed to increased trade and military ties, the Chinese interpretation was one in which Xi called for peace and economic stability.
  • The St Petersburg economic forum continues for a second day, with government ministers and CB officials all in attendance. Putin is due to meet representatives from the Russian car industry.
  • Bloomberg report that Senior European officials see little chance of Russia easing the strain on global food prices, with Putin retaining a key bargaining chip on grain exports to use as leverage against the West and Ukraine. At the St Petersburg conference today, the head of the Russian Unions of Grain Exporters appears on a panel at 9am local time (0700BST/0200ET).
  • On oil exports, Novak this morning cites Russia’ potential for oil output growth in July, with current output close to February levels, although exports in June are to be slightly reduced.
  • Kommersant report on research conducted by ACRA that sees Russian banks needing RUB 0.4-0.2trl in order to maintain capital adequacy ratios.
  • Discussions are underway on what to replace the Urals price of oil with in official government forecasting, with data on the Urals price inaccurate due to market volatility, according to Vedomosti.
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