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NORWAY: LFS Unemployment Steady At 4.0%, Norges Bank Preferred Metric Tomorrow

NORWAY
CEEMEABulletNorwayGlobalFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionMarkets

This week’s Norwegian labour market data was not expected to move the needle for the Norges Bank, and the August LFS data showed few changes to July’s release. The LFS unemployment rate was steady at 4.0% on both a trend- and seasonally adjusted basis. 

  • After peaking at 0.7 in May and June, the Norwegian LFS unemployment rate Sahm rule (the difference between the current 3mma of the unemployment rate and its minimum value over the last twelve months) has fallen back to 0.4. This indicates that the pace of labour market easing has slowed somewhat.
  • The seasonally adjusted employment rate fell two tenths to 69.5%, continuing its gradual trend lower that began in mid-2023. Norges Bank expects employment growth to “pick up gradually” in the coming years “as economic activity increases”.
  • The Norges Bank’s preferred measure of unemployment - the registered unemployment rate – is due tomorrow, and is expected to remain at 2.0%. This would be in line with the September MPR projections.
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This week’s Norwegian labour market data was not expected to move the needle for the Norges Bank, and the August LFS data showed few changes to July’s release. The LFS unemployment rate was steady at 4.0% on both a trend- and seasonally adjusted basis. 

  • After peaking at 0.7 in May and June, the Norwegian LFS unemployment rate Sahm rule (the difference between the current 3mma of the unemployment rate and its minimum value over the last twelve months) has fallen back to 0.4. This indicates that the pace of labour market easing has slowed somewhat.
  • The seasonally adjusted employment rate fell two tenths to 69.5%, continuing its gradual trend lower that began in mid-2023. Norges Bank expects employment growth to “pick up gradually” in the coming years “as economic activity increases”.
  • The Norges Bank’s preferred measure of unemployment - the registered unemployment rate – is due tomorrow, and is expected to remain at 2.0%. This would be in line with the September MPR projections.