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Not Much of a Pause in Feb FOMC Minutes

US TSYS
Tsys firmer after the bell, but off session highs to near middle session range after Feb FOMC minutes revealed "a few" members wanted to hike 50bp. Yield curves off steeper levels w/ short end under pressure (2s10s -.188 at -77.623 vs. -73.312 high).
  • Not much of a pause gleaned from Feb minutes: "pause" came up just once in the minutes, in the context of other central banks indicating they were at or near a point where it could be appropriate to do so.
  • Fed funds implied hike for Mar'23 at 29.6bp, May'23 cumulative 55.6bp (+1.8) to 5.143%, Jun'23 72.2bp (+3.3) to 5.309%, terminal climbs to 5.38% high in Aug'23.
  • Tsys had bounced earlier after StL Fed Bullard interview on CNBC siphoned some hawkish positioning out of markets. StL Fed Bullard sees "tough road ahead" on inflation, rates reaching 5.375%, he states "we have a good shot at beating inflation in 2023", while mkt may be overpricing chances of recession.
  • Heavy two-way trade (TYH3>3.8M) driven by quarterly futures rolls from Mar'23 to Jun'23 ahead next Tue First Notice (Jun'23 takes lead).
  • Tsy futures dip briefly, still firm after $43B 5Y note auction (91282CGH8) tails: 4.109% high yield vs. 4.105% WI; 2.48x bid-to-cover vs. 2.64x the prior month.
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