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MNI DATA FORECASTS: EZ Inflation, US Payrolls In Focus
Not Much of a Pause in Feb FOMC Minutes
- Not much of a pause gleaned from Feb minutes: "pause" came up just once in the minutes, in the context of other central banks indicating they were at or near a point where it could be appropriate to do so.
- Fed funds implied hike for Mar'23 at 29.6bp, May'23 cumulative 55.6bp (+1.8) to 5.143%, Jun'23 72.2bp (+3.3) to 5.309%, terminal climbs to 5.38% high in Aug'23.
- Tsys had bounced earlier after StL Fed Bullard interview on CNBC siphoned some hawkish positioning out of markets. StL Fed Bullard sees "tough road ahead" on inflation, rates reaching 5.375%, he states "we have a good shot at beating inflation in 2023", while mkt may be overpricing chances of recession.
- Heavy two-way trade (TYH3>3.8M) driven by quarterly futures rolls from Mar'23 to Jun'23 ahead next Tue First Notice (Jun'23 takes lead).
- Tsy futures dip briefly, still firm after $43B 5Y note auction (91282CGH8) tails: 4.109% high yield vs. 4.105% WI; 2.48x bid-to-cover vs. 2.64x the prior month.
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