Notable Flattening After 30-Year Supply Goes Well

Tuesday’s bid in core global FI markets, a recovery from the base of a limited Asia-Pac range for U.S. Tsys and a solid round of 30-Year JGB supply helped JGBS to firm on Wednesday.

• The major cash JGBs run flat to ~9bp richer into the bell with the long end outperforming. Meanwhile 7s are outstripping the bid in surrounding tenors owing to the bid in futures, with JGB futures 45 ticks firmer on the day, building on overnight gains. Cash JGBs are set to go out at richest levels of the day.
• In terms of the auction details, 30-Year JGB supply saw the low-price print above wider expectations, with the cover ratio nudging up to a more “normal” level after last month’s auction saw the lowest round of 30-Year JGB cover since early ’21. Elsewhere, the tail narrowed from a wide base.
• We would suggest there was some worry re: digestion of the auction, given the size of the reaction on the back of a fairly unremarkable round of internals.
• Local headline flow saw a wider than expected current account surplus and familiar tones from the government re: FX matters, which didn’t impact the space.
• Looking ahead, weekly international security flow data and the monthly money supply readings will cross on Thursday.