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Nov 2023 FOMC Analyst Views - Lingering Expectations Of Another Hike


We've just published an update to our FOMC preview to include sell-side analyst outlooks - emailed to subscribers and available here (please see Page 32-36 of this document for sell-side analysts outlooks for the Oct 31-Nov 1 2023 FOMC meeting.)

  • Sell-side analysts are unanimously agreed that the FOMC will leave rates on hold at the November meeting.
  • Only a few analysts expect changes in the November FOMC Statement vs September’s. These are mostly minor mark-to-market changes to the descriptions of incoming growth / jobs data (nobody expects a change to the characterization of inflation as “elevated”).
  • One sees changes to the Statement’s forward guidance: Morgan Stanley sees it softened by taking out the word “additional” (re “extent of additional policy firming”).
  • Regarding financial conditions tightening: analysts estimate that the impact is equivalent to between 1-2 (Nomura) and 4 (Goldman Sachs) Fed rate hikes.
  • Three analysts (of the 26 previews MNI read) see one further hike in this cycle: Barclays, BofA, and CIBC. That said, several others mentioned upside risks to their forecasts in their Nov meeting previews.
  • All analysts expect cuts starting in 2024, though the starting point ranges from Q1 2024 through the end of the year.

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