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Nov CPI Weaker Than Expected, BSP Likely On Hold Next Week

PHILIPPINES

Philippines Nov CPI has printed weaker than expected. We came in at 4.1% y/y, versus 4.3% forecast and 4.9% prior. The m/m outcome was +0.2% (+0.4% forecast and -0.2% prior).

  • This outcome was also towards the bottom end of the BSP's projected range (4.0% to 4.8% y/y). Core CPI stepped down to 4.7% y/y from 5.3% prior. This is back to mid 2022 levels for the core print.
  • The detail showed slower m/m momentum across most sub-indices except for food. In y/y terms not a single category saw accelerating y/y momentum.
  • Transport is only category in negative y/y terms (-0.8%).
  • This should keep the BSP happy from an inflation trend standpoint. The next policy meeting is on Dec 14 (next Thursday), with no change likely. The current policy rate is 6.50%.
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