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Nov Data Sees Retail Dragging on Q4 GDP

UK DATA
MNI (London)

UK NOV RETAIL SALES EX AUTO -0.3% (FCST +0.3%); OCT +0.7%r M/M

UK NOV RETAIL SALES EX AUTO -5.9% Y/Y (FCST -5.8%); -6.4%r Y/Y

  • UK retail sales fell in November, contracting by 0.3% m/m and by 5.9% y/y.
  • The key downward contribution came predominantly from online retailers, which have experienced falling sales since mid-2021. Auto fuel sales fell -1.7% m/m to 8.7% below Feb 2020 levels, and non-food store sales declined by -0.6% m/m to 1.8% below Feb 2020 levels.
  • Food store sales remained expansionary at +0.9% m/m as consumers stocked up for Christmas in advance.
  • Black Friday sales failed to offer much support this year, and compared to pre-pandemic levels, total retail ex. fuel was down -0.7%.
  • According to an ONS spokesperson, retail sales would have to jump by 3.0% m/m in December in order to deliver a flat reading from retail sales to Q4 GDP.
  • Against the current economic backdrop of high inflation, weak real wage growth and dampened consumer confidence, retail is set to drag on Q4 GDP.

Source: ONS

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