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November CPI Slightly Below Estimates, Continued Lower Y/Y Momentum

AUSTRALIA DATA

The November monthly CPI rose 4.3% y/y, against a 4.4% forecast and 4.9% prior. This continues the trend move down in headline inflation pressures. The monthly measured peaked in Dec 2022 at 8.4% y/y, so base effects are still aiding the pull back.

  • The ABS measure which excludes certain volatile items (like fuel, fruit and vegetables) rose 4.8% y/y, against a 5.1% gain in Oct.
  • By sub-category, trends were mixed. Housing inflation rose by 6.6%, above October's pace, communication was also firmer, up 2.4% y/y (prior 1.8%). Most other categories saw slower y/y momentum. Recreation eased to 1.2% y/y from 2.7% in Oct.
  • Food inflation remains elevated across most categories, while meals out and take away food eased back to 5.7%y/y in Nov, from 6.9% in Oct.
  • All in all, the data is unlikely to give any renewed hawkishness for the RBA ahead of Feb policy meeting. Note we get for Q4 CPI on Jan 31.

Fig 1: AU Monthly CPI Y/Y

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