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November IPCA Inflation To Precede Copom Decision

BRAZIL
  • November inflation data is due on Tuesday, expecting to show annual IPCA slowing to 4.70% from 4.84% in mid-November. The data should not have any effect on the central bank’s reaction function this week, with the Copom unanimously expected to continue the pace of easing, reducing the Selic rate by 50bps to 11.75%.
  • USDBRL has been edging higher from the open, and the pair finds itself once again at resistance around 4.9535, the Nov 10 high. Having previously been tested, a clear break of this level would ease bearish technical pressure and may expose 5.0696, the Oct 31 high.
  • Separately, President Lula reinforced his message to Venezuela‘s President Nicolas Maduro that he should avoid making any unilateral moves that lead to an escalation of the friction with the Guyana.
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