November Sees Record Number Of House Representatives Retire From Congress

November has seen the most retirements of House Representatives in a single month since political encyclopaedia Ballotopedia began collecting data in 2011, with more likely to come during the Thanksgiving break.

• The spate of retirements may be driven by uncertainty in the political environment and increased polarisation of the two political parties squeezing lawmakers in the traditional centre ground.
• Rep. Garrett Graves (R-LA), an ally Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) the former Speaker who was ousted by hardline Republicans in October, said: “This place, right now, I think it’s childish. I mean, this isn’t a place where you attract the cream of the crop.”
• Looking ahead to the 2024 general election, retirements are likely to increase the prospect of seats changing hands. The Brookings Institution notes that, between 2014-2020, 34% of races which saw a party flip were in seats without an incumbent.
• There is a prevailing view that House Reps are more likely to retire when they believe the political environment is working against their re-election. However, there is little in the historical data to suggest retirements can accurately predict future electoral outcomes.
• Ahead of last year’s midterm elections, 31 Democrats did not seek re-election versus 18 Republicans. This was widely assumed to reflect a highly negative political environment. However, at the ballot box, Democrats dramatically overperformed expectations and restricted the GOP to a thin four-seat majority.
• Punchbowl News has published a list of retirements: Here