CANADA JULY CPI +2.5% YOY, SLOWEST SINCE MARCH 2021

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NWM Below Consensus For Core CPI

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • NatWest Markets see core CPI at 0.24% M/M in Nov for another “Fed-friendly report”.
  • “Our forecast would pull the three-month annualized growth rate of the core CPI down to 3.2% from 3.4% in October (and 5.0% a year earlier) and the six-month annualized rate down to 2.8% a 32-month low.”
  • “While we’re certain that the November CPI won’t change the outcome of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting (no change in the funds rates is a lock at this point), it will affect the tone of Chair Powell’s press conference regarding the outlook on inflation and policy for early 2024.”
  • “We think used car prices, airfares, and hotels may see somewhat smaller declines than in October, but softer readings for apparel, recreation and medical care prices.”
  • They see tenants' and OER indexes increasing 0.4% M/M after increases of 0.5% and 0.4% in October. "Moreover, a steady downshift in the rate of increase over the next several months is a decent bet given other private sector gauges of rent prices.”
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