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NY Fed Inflation Expectations Don’t Echo U.Mich Volatility

US DATA
  • NY Fed inflation expectations for November didn’t match the acceleration seen in the U.Mich survey before its subsequent slide lower in last week’s preliminary December release.
  • The 1Y ahead measure fell from 3.57% to 3.36%, whilst the 3Y and 5Y measures held steady at 3.0% and 2.7% respectively.
  • The 3Y has held at 3% for three months now, relatively steady having averaged 2.9% through 2023 after 3.4% in 2022.
  • The 5Y holds 2.7% for the second month, in line with the 2.7% averaged in the year to date but after 2.6% in 2022 (biased lower by particularly low readings in fall 2022).

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