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NY Fed Inflation Expectations Helps Further Pare Gains

US TSYS
  • The increase in two of the three NY Fed inflation expectations metrics has helped Treasuries extend a paring of earlier gains, but only to the middle of the day’s range and firmly within Friday’s range.
  • 2Y yields have lifted 1bp since the data. It leaves cash yields ~1.5bp lower on the day almost uniformly across the curve.
  • TYM4 sits at 108-26 (+ 04) on cumulative volumes at 75-80% of recent averages for the time of day.
  • It has remained within Friday’s low of 108-21+, which came close to support at 108-19 (20-day EMA). However, they maintain a firmer tone in trend terms with channel resistance still exposed at 109-06+ (channel top drawn from Feb 1 high) before other closely packed levels.
  • Fed Funds implied rates show 2.5bp of cuts for June with a first cut fully priced for Nov (29bp) and 43bp of cuts for 2024 as a whole.
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