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US DATA: NY Fed Near-Term Inflation Expectations Bely U.Mich Jump

US DATA
USEM BulletFixed Income BulletsData BulletBulletMarketsEmerging Market NewsForeign Exchange BulletsNorth America
  • The NY Fed consumer survey saw 1Y and 3Y inflation expectations unchanged in January at 3.0% although the 5Y bounced three tenths after a two tenth decline to 3.0% for its highest since May.
  • 1Y inflation expectations have been particularly steady in recent months, averaging 3.0% since June in a 2.9-3.0% range.
  • That’s in contrast to the U.Mich equivalent which has ramped up to 4.3% as of last week’s preliminary February release after 3.3% in July, but does have a pronounced issue with partisanship. It was 2.8% prior to Trump’s inauguration and 2.7% prior to the November presidential election.
  • That said, the NY Fed’s 5Y metric is likely to be watched from here, with the 3.0% at joint highs for the limited history back to Jun 2022. 
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  • The NY Fed consumer survey saw 1Y and 3Y inflation expectations unchanged in January at 3.0% although the 5Y bounced three tenths after a two tenth decline to 3.0% for its highest since May.
  • 1Y inflation expectations have been particularly steady in recent months, averaging 3.0% since June in a 2.9-3.0% range.
  • That’s in contrast to the U.Mich equivalent which has ramped up to 4.3% as of last week’s preliminary February release after 3.3% in July, but does have a pronounced issue with partisanship. It was 2.8% prior to Trump’s inauguration and 2.7% prior to the November presidential election.
  • That said, the NY Fed’s 5Y metric is likely to be watched from here, with the 3.0% at joint highs for the limited history back to Jun 2022. 
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