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NY Fed On Diverging Consumer Inflation Expectations

US
  • Latest research from the NY Fed on consumer expectations, jointly-authored by President Williams, shows a divergence in medium-term inflation expectations.
  • Median 1-yr ahead expectations have unsurprisingly continued to rise over the past six months, but 3-yr ahead expectations have declined slightly and 5-yr ahead expectations have remained remarkably stable and at a level well below recent inflation readings [perhaps helping the decline in long-term market measures over the past two months].
  • Surprisingly though, a larger share of consumers expects high inflation three years from now, while simultaneously a growing share of consumers expects low inflation and even deflation.

Link: https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2022/05/what-do-consumers-think-will-happen-to-inflation/


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  • Latest research from the NY Fed on consumer expectations, jointly-authored by President Williams, shows a divergence in medium-term inflation expectations.
  • Median 1-yr ahead expectations have unsurprisingly continued to rise over the past six months, but 3-yr ahead expectations have declined slightly and 5-yr ahead expectations have remained remarkably stable and at a level well below recent inflation readings [perhaps helping the decline in long-term market measures over the past two months].
  • Surprisingly though, a larger share of consumers expects high inflation three years from now, while simultaneously a growing share of consumers expects low inflation and even deflation.

Link: https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2022/05/what-do-consumers-think-will-happen-to-inflation/


Keep reading...Show less