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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FED
Excerpts below taken from: https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/08/the-post-pandemic-r/
- “There is arguably some evidence that short-run r* is currently elevated relative to pre-COVID levels: The economy has proven to be extremely resilient and spreads remain relatively low, in spite of the recent banking turmoil. As shown in June, the model expects short-run real r* to be 2.5% by the end of the year.”
- “Evidence on whether long-run r*—that is, the persistent component, or trend, in r*—has risen after COVID is much weaker. We use a battery of models, from VARs to DSGEs, to estimate these trends, and these models reach different conclusions.
- “According to VAR models, long-run r* has roughly remained constant and, if anything, declined a bit since late 2019, reaching 0.75% in real terms. According to the DSGE model, long-run r* has instead risen by almost 50bps during this period, and is now about 1.8%.”
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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