NY Reaction to Trump Tweets in Focus

The week's opening risk on tone took a severe knock Tuesday after US Trump ended fiscal stimulus negotiations until after November's election. This statement acted to place further weight on a retreating EUR/USD (which had seen an extended recovery high of $1.1808 in early NY) taking it to a low of $1.1732 ahead of the close. Further Trump tweets into Asia, that he was open to initiatives to support certain industries and smaller businesses, provided some respite to the risk pullback, saw rate edge to $1.1740 but momentum was not too inspiring and it slipped to an extended low of $1.1725. Rate has slowly clawed its way back to $1.1738 though seen holding shy of that earlier $1.1740 high. NY reaction to these overnight tweets will provide interest. German Industrial Production provides early data focus at 0700BST, median 1.5%mm, -8.7%yy, with optimistic hopes for a further improved number following on from Tuesday's Factory Orders. ECB Lagarde speaks at 1310BST, Villeroy at 1730BST. Fed speakers include Rosengren, Bostic, Kashkari. FOMC Minutes released at 1900BST. Fed Williams speaks at 1900BST, Evans at 2130BST. Support seen at $1.1725, $1.1710/00 ahead of $1.1687/85(61.8% 1.1612-1.1808/Sep30 low,Sep25 high). Resistance $1.1750 ahead of $1.1766, $1.1790, with stronger resistance between $1.1800/10. 55-dma comes in today at $1.1792, key on a close basis.

MNI Techs: Monday's key technical development in EURUSD was a break of resistance at 1.1770/73, Oct 1 high and a trendline resistance drawn off the Sep 1 high. The pair has failed however to extend gains following the break, and marks a concern for bulls. Initial support lies at 1.1685, Sep 30 low. A break would negate recent bullish developments and instead expose key support at 1.1612 once again. The upside trigger is 1.1808, yesterday's high.