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NYMEX HO (X20): Looking For An Extension Lower

OIL TECHS
  • RES 4: $1.2077 - 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 8 decline
  • RES 3: $1.1941 - 50-day EMA
  • RES 2: $1.11858 - High Sep 18 and the near-term bull trigger
  • RES 1: $1.1520 - High Sep 28
  • PRICE: $1.1096 @ 07:08 BST Sep 30
  • SUP 1: $1.0988 - Low Sep 23
  • SUP 2: $1.0792 - Low Sep 8 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: $1.0470 - Low May 15
  • SUP 4: $1.0319 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Aug rally

HO futures outlook remains bearish. The sell-off on Sep 21 confirmed a top at $1.1858, Sep 18 high and price action recently stalled just above the 20-day EMA. Also, a bearish price pattern on Sep 18, a doji and the Sep 21 move lower has reinforced a bearish theme. Continued weakness would open $1.0792, Sep 8 low where a break would resume the downtrend. $1.1858 is key resistance and a reversal trigger.

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