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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
A New York Times article caused a stir this morning with polling data revealing that 64 percent of Democratic voters would prefer President Joe Biden not to run in 2024.
- The article also claimed that "than three-quarters of registered voters see the United States moving in the wrong direction," an assertion supported by most leading pollsters. The NYT says that this is the lowest rate since the 2008 financial crisis.
- NYT: "The backlash against Mr. Biden and desire to move in a new direction were particularly acute among younger voters. In the survey, 94 percent of Democrats under the age of 30 said they would prefer a different presidential nominee."
- This latest report will be troubling for Democrats as there is a lack of credible presidential candidates waiting in the wings. Betting market Smarkets shows Biden with an implied probability of 33.3% of retaining the Democrat nomination. Biden's VP kamala Harris holds onto second place but it is likely that she will drop in probability as voices grow louder for a fresh face.
- The most likely alternative to Biden may be California Governor Gavin Newsom (D-CA).
- Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight tweeter earlier: "Yeah, I've poked fun of Newsom's messaging and what he offers as an alternative, but the fact that a "mainstream" Democrat as prominent as the governor of California is already basically running for the 2024 nomination is a very bad sign for Biden."
- CNN wrote last week after Gavin Newsom funded an advert in Florida attacking Gov Ron DeSantis (R-FL): "Newsom's ad -- and the resulting publicity -- speak to those doubts, and will fuel them. There is just no way that Newsom goes after DeSantis -- even with a small TV ad buy -- unless he thinks there is a possibility that he might be facing the Florida governor come November 2024 (or at least wants Democratic activists and donors to be considering that possibility). Which would mean no Biden in the race."
Figure 1: Democrat Presidential Nominee 2024 (Smarkets)
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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