US
The New York Times/Siena College have released a survey showing Vice President Kamala Harris’ momentum may have stalled slightly after the “political sugar high” of Biden’s departure from the race.
- The survey, which shows Trump leading Harris 48%-47% nationwide, reveals some vulnerabilities in Harris’ campaign, hinting that Trump may have the edge in controlling the narrative of the race.
- Harris’ team has sought to frame the VP as a candidate of change, and one who represents the traditional centre-ground. The survey suggests that Harris may be falling short on both measures, with nearly 50% of voters saying she’s “too liberal or progressive," and only 40% saying that Harris represents change, compared to 61% for Trump.
- The Times summarises Trump’s advantages: “He’s more popular than he was in 2016 or 2020,” he has, “a five-point lead on the issue that matters most to voters, whatever that may be for them,” and “he occupies the center.”
- The survey appears to support a theory that Harris’ strategy of providing a minimal sketch of policy and offering few unscripted media appearances may be miscalculated.
- The Times notes that 28% of voters said they needed to learn more about Harris, compared with only 9% who said the same of Trump.
- In response, Nate Silver’s forecast increased Trump’s implied probability of winning the election to 63.8%, Trump’s highest since Silver’s model launched.
- Silver noted that Harris’s reduced lead (2.5%) in the national polling average, “would put her in dangerous territory in the Electoral College.”
Figure 1: Presidential Election Forecast
Source: Silver Bulletin
Source: Silver Bulletin
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