Free Trial

NYT/Siena Survey Exposes Cracks In Harris Campaign

US

The New York Times/Siena College have released a survey showing Vice President Kamala Harris’ momentum may have stalled slightly after the “political sugar high” of Biden’s departure from the race.

  • The survey, which shows Trump leading Harris 48%-47% nationwide, reveals some vulnerabilities in Harris’ campaign, hinting that Trump may have the edge in controlling the narrative of the race.
  • Harris’ team has sought to frame the VP as a candidate of change, and one who represents the traditional centre-ground. The survey suggests that Harris may be falling short on both measures, with nearly 50% of voters saying she’s “too liberal or progressive," and only 40% saying that Harris represents change, compared to 61% for Trump.
  • The Times summarises Trump’s advantages: “He’s more popular than he was in 2016 or 2020,” he has, “a five-point lead on the issue that matters most to voters, whatever that may be for them,” and “he occupies the center.”
  • The survey appears to support a theory that Harris’ strategy of providing a minimal sketch of policy and offering few unscripted media appearances may be miscalculated.
  • The Times notes that 28% of voters said they needed to learn more about Harris, compared with only 9% who said the same of Trump.
  • In response, Nate Silver’s forecast increased Trump’s implied probability of winning the election to 63.8%, Trump’s highest since Silver’s model launched.
  • Silver noted that Harris’s reduced lead (2.5%) in the national polling average, “would put her in dangerous territory in the Electoral College.”
Figure 1: Presidential Election ForecastSource: Silver Bulletin

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.