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NZ Stays With Hikes Eyeing RBNZ’s Track Record

STIR
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A week is a long time in STIR pricing these days, particularly when there is fear of financial contagion, with the U.S. shifting from a chronic $-Bloc underperformer to a dramatic outperformer with terminal rate expectations tumbling as much as 175bp in the U.S. yesterday versus relatively paltry declines of 75bp in Australia and 50bp in NZ.

  • As highlighted yesterday, undershooting OIS tightening expectations has not been part of the Fed’s playbook this cycle but is a familiar theme for the RBA (Figure 1).

Figure 1: RBA Cash Rate Vs. OIS 6M1M (led 6M)

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A week is a long time in STIR pricing these days, particularly when there is fear of financial contagion, with the U.S. shifting from a chronic $-Bloc underperformer to a dramatic outperformer with terminal rate expectations tumbling as much as 175bp in the U.S. yesterday versus relatively paltry declines of 75bp in Australia and 50bp in NZ.

  • As highlighted yesterday, undershooting OIS tightening expectations has not been part of the Fed’s playbook this cycle but is a familiar theme for the RBA (Figure 1).

Figure 1: RBA Cash Rate Vs. OIS 6M1M (led 6M)

Keep reading...Show less