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NZ Swap: Lower After StatsNZ’s Price Indices For November

BONDS

NZ swap rates are 3-5bps lower after Statistics NZ reports price indexes for selected goods and services for November. Food, fuel and alcohol prices, comprising ~27% of CPI, rose at a slower annual pace. Still, annual inflation for cigarettes and tobacco, rentals and airfares accelerated. (See BBG link)

  • Westpac NZ economists have cut their forecast for Q4 CPI inflation following the publication. Westpac now sees CPI rising 0.3% q/q versus the previous projection of 0.6%.
  • Separately, ASB Bank said that the selected price index data suggests annual inflation through November has slowed. “Prices were down 0.5% in November, with annual inflation a smidgen below 5%... and consistent with our core view that there is considerable downside risk to the 5.0% y/y RBNZ pick”.
  • RBNZ dated OIS pricing is 3-8bps softer across meetings beyond Apr’24, with Nov’24 leading.
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