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NZD: AUD/NZD Slightly Lower, Holds Above 1.0800 Support, RBA's Hunter To Speak

NZD
  • The AUD/NZD fell 0.19% on Tuesday to 1.0819. Ranges were tight as the cross holds above support at 1.0800. WBC consumer Confidence fell 0.5%, while NAB business confidence fell to its lowest since November 2023, while conditions fell to the lowest since Jan 2022.
  • The pair has spent the majority of the past two weeks trading in about a 50-pip range. The 20 & 200-day EMA are trading around the same levels and now act as resistance at about 1.0880, while support is see at 1.0800.
  • RBA dated OIS is cooled 2bps to 17bps of cuts into year-end, however has firmed 3-10bps at meeting next year. February has 45bps of cuts now priced in, with 90bps of cuts priced in through to July 2025 in contrast to the 188bps of cuts priced in for NZ
  • The AU-NZ 2yr swap spread fell 2bps on Tuesday, to -3bps.
  • Expiries: 1.1350 ($725.88m), 1.1250 ($365.67m), 1.1200 ($500m) for Sept 16  
  • Today, we have RBA's Hunter Speech at 10:20am and a 2027 bond auction
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